HARVEY BECOMES CATEGORY 2, CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.

As of 5 AM (US time)

Location: 26.1°N 95.5°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 958 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

Harvey is now a category 2 hurricane in the Gulf. It will continue to strengthen as it approaches the Texas coastline. It’s not an immediate threat to the northern Gulf Coast but it will be for Texas where flooding rains are likely. The central Texas coast may get large storm surge too of 6 to 12 feet. Landfall is likely late tonight. After landfall, Harvey slows and loses wind speed but meanders for days to potentially create flooding rains of a foot or two. In the worst case of a stall, rainfall may approach 3 feet over several days.

It is entirely possible that after landfall and an immediate weakening, Harvey could drift back into the Gulf over the weekend. If that were to happen, it may or may not strengthen again. It would certainly prolong the threat of flooding rains for Texas and then Louisiana, as it would likely drift northward or northeastward. We keep our daily routing of scattered thunderstorms but we might get additional rain next week from Harvey, depending on its track.

The category of a hurricane only tells you the maximum wind. By itself, the category does not control storm surge or rain.

The Associated Press reports: Hurricane Harvey could cause U.S. gasoline prices to rise, with the storm expected to hit a refinery-rich stretch of the Gulf Coast. Some refineries are expected to shut down until the storm passes, possibly disrupting gasoline supplies.

The immediate impact from Harvey for the north-central Gulf Coast will not be in the weather but it will be in the surf. Watch for swells and dangerous rip currents increasing tomorrow.

The weak tropical disturbance over south Florida will likely not move much in the next few days. That means a very wet pattern there, until the disturbance moves northeastward into the Atlantic.

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